New online tool to demonstrate backtest overfitting

Introduction

We are pleased to announce the availability of a new online tool to demonstrate and analyze the phenomenon of backtest overfitting. It is available HERE. It was developed by researchers at the Scientific Data Management Group at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, with contributions and suggestions from several other persons. A complete list of contributors is given below.

In finance, “backtest overfitting” means using historical market data (i.e., a “backtest”) to develop an investment strategy, where too many variations of the strategy are tried, relative to the amount of data available. Overfit strategies typically work well when tested against the

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