CXO’s evaluation of forecasters
The CXO Advisory Group of Manassas, Virginia, which offers “objective research and reviews to aid investing decisions,” has just published an interesting evaluation of equity market forecasts. Titled Guru Grades, the column concludes that the class did not do very well!
CXO evaluated a total of 6582 forecasts for the U.S. stock market, published by 68 different market experts, over the years 2005 through 2012. These forecasts were limited to publicly published predictions (i.e., not in private newsletters), and excluded forecasts that were judged too vague or too complex be reliably evaluated.
The results were not
Continue reading A sobering analysis of financial gurus’ market forecasts