Another miserable year for market forecasters

Venice astrological circle; credit Wikimedia

Pseudoscience and forecasting

Suppose, during a nightly TV weather broadcast, that a reporter presented forecasts by persons, with no credentials in mathematical meteorology, who based their analysis on eyeballing a few charts and graphs. If anyone took such amateur forecasts seriously, when a severe storm was approaching, rather than relying on the consensus of qualified scientists assisted by state-of-the-art supercomputer models, they would risk disaster.

Or suppose that someone suggested that “biorhythms” (a person’s presumed daily, monthly and yearly cycles that supposedly start in sync at birth) could be used to predict the performance

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